Walt Disney and Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (review) was the top movie at the domestic box office for its fourth and presumably final weekend. Had Venom: Let There Be Carnage stuck to its initial September 24 release date, Shang-Chi would have had to settle for three weekends at the top. But ranking is often arbitrary, often decided by almost random scheduling or flukes in the calendar. Likewise, that Destin Daniel Cretton’s Shang-Chi fended off poor, underappreciated Dear Evan Hansen ($7.5 million) is less impressive than its $13.3 million fourth-weekend gross and normal-for-MCU (especially if weekend four isn’t on Thanksgiving or Memorial Day weekend) 38% drop. The Simu Liu/Awkwafina/Tony Leung film has now earned $196.5 million domestic in 24 days.
The martial arts fantasy actioner is already this year’s biggest domestic grosser, having passed Black Widow ($183.5 million) on Friday. It’s also passed The Incredible Hulk ($132 million in 2008), Captain America ($176 million in 2011), Ant-Man ($180 million in 2015) and Thor ($181 million in 2011). Presuming it doesn’t get clobbered by the quadruple whammy of Venom 2 (October 1), No Time to Die (October 8), Halloween Kills (October 15) and Dune (October 22), it’s looking at a domestic finish of $225-235 million. That’ll put it over the likes of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($203 million in 2014), Thor: The Dark World ($206 million in 2013), X2 ($214 million in 2003), Venom ($214 million in 2018), Ant-Man and the Wasp ($216 million in 2018).
If it ends up closer to $235 million, then it’ll pass the unadjusted likes of Logan ($227 million in 2017), Doctor Strange ($232 million in 2016), X-Men: Days of Future Past ($233 million in 2014) and X-Men: The Last Stand ($234 million in 2006). I’m guessing if it’s close enough that Disney will keep it in theaters long enough to pass Doctor Strange, but I’m also guessing that pre-release heat from Eternals (November 6) will give it a slight boost as we saw with Black Panther (prior to Avengers: Infinity War) and Captain Marvel (prior to Avengers: Endgame). Speaking of, just because those MCU origin stories nabbed $700 million in 2018 and $426 million in 2019 doesn’t mean Shang-Chi would have otherwise pulled similar grosses.
Considering A Quiet Place part II ($160 million) and F9 ($173 million) earned arguably 85% of what they otherwise would have in normal times, a similar scenario would have given Shang-Chi as much as $270 million domestic (above Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s $259 million gross in 2014) in “normal” times. I’m still looking at Doctor Strange as the “par for the course” performance for MCU solo hero origin stories based on less-well-known characters, and that Shang-Chi might best it even during deeply compromised circumstances is a hell of a thing. Overseas is another story, as even negating China (which might have brought it an extra $200 million but also might have brought in closer to $100 million), the overseas earnings have been wanting.
On a Covid curve, a $363.5 million-and-counting global gross is frankly terrific (showing once again that Tenet got done dirty by its domestic underperformance), with a likely end game of around $420 million seemingly in the cards. Throw in $80 million that otherwise might have come from China (a big “might”) and you can make the case that the circumstances made the difference between Ant-Man ($519 million in 2015) and Doctor Strange ($677 million in 2016). China usually gives back 25% of the gross to the studios, so the numbers there are often (save for disproportionally-huge-in-China franchises like The Fast Saga or the MonsterVerse) mostly about inflating the global grosses of already successful movies. Even Endgame would have still topped Titanic without a penny from China.
Nonetheless, the film’s overseas gross ($166 million-and-counting) has been impacted by the ongoing pandemic. 60% of Australia is in lockdown, Australia and Korea are having a big rise in cases and 93% of Japan is compromised (restricted hours and restricted capacities). Almost all of South East Asia (save for Singapore, Malaysia and parts of Indonesia) are closed, so (for example) Shang-Chi isn’t getting anywhere near Doctor Strange’s $16 million grosses in Japan or the $41 million it earned in South Korea. Give or take improved conditions or a surprise playdate in China, a global gross closer to Bad Boys For Life ($430 million) than Godzilla Vs. Kong ($460 million) will have to suffice. We’ll see if Shang-Chi 2 can gross what Shang-Chi might otherwise have earned.
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September 26, 2021 at 10:20PM
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'Shang-Chi' Box Office: Marvel Movie Tops $360M Worldwide - Forbes
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