“Red Notice” is not a good movie, at least by most conventional measures.
It has a score of 36 on review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes and 37% on Metacritic. It’s not going to get nominated for Academy Awards, nor did it introduce the world to new talent. A New York Times review deemed it a “vacant bid at franchise creation,” and the paper thought so little of the film that neither of its primary film critics reviewed it.
But “Red Notice” is popular, wildly so. Netflix says it is the most-watched movie in company history. People spent more than 328 million hours watching it over its first three weeks in release. (It also has an audience score on Rotten Tomatoes of 92.)
While we don’t know how many people watched it – or how many finished it – we do know, thanks to director Rawson Marshall Thurber, that at least 121 million accounts have watched at least two minutes. We also know that 328 million hours equates to 164 million Netflix accounts watching the whole thing once.
However you slice and dice the numbers, the conclusion is the same: a couple hundred million people have watched this film in the last month. (It was released Nov. 5.) It is reasonable to assume more people have watched “Red Notice” than any new movie released this year.
“Red Notice” is a sign of an evolution in Netflix’s film operation as it tries to program for the service’s 213.6 million customers. It wants to make slightly fewer movies — but more large ones.
Netflix has a reputation for making a handful of very good movies, and a lot of forgettable ones. If you ask the head of Netflix’s film department, he will tell you that reputation is deserved. Global film chief Scott Stuber acknowledged as much in a recent interview with the New York Times.
“I think one of the fair criticisms has been we make too much and not enough is great.”
The reason, Stuber notes, is that Netflix is making too many movies. Netflix has said it will release about 90 movies this year. I count closer to 150 on Wikipedia, which has always been a pretty reliable source of Netflix numbers over the years. Either figure makes Netflix the most productive studio in Hollywood.
Major movie studios have traditionally released between 20 and 30 movies a year. In the comic book era, that number has dwindled to between 10 and 20 for most studios. There is no way to maintain quality producing at that level.
Netflix has had to produce a lot of movies to replace the titles it was losing from third parties who no longer wanted to give Netflix large swaths of its library. It built out a library of adult dramas and romantic comedies, specializing in the kinds of movies other studios had neglected.
That is going to change, or so Netflix says. We’re not talking about a dramatic reduction. But, just as it did in stand-up comedies, Netflix will try to be more selective with its outlays.
When Netflix talks about quality, it’s not always talking about quality as ordained by critics. Winning Oscars has been a goal at Netflix for the past several years. It cares so much about them that it hired Lisa Taback, a savvy Oscar campaigner, as a full-time vice president.
Taback has spent tens of millions of dollars each year charming awards voters, and her strategy has worked. Netflix earned the most Oscar nominations of any studio last year, and it could very well earn the most nominations of any studio this year.
But Netflix chases Oscars for the same reason it chases Emmy Awards. These prizes validate the product in the eyes of the talent (and the subset of viewers who care).
As it gets bigger, its biggest priority isn’t winning awards. It’s satisfying viewers. It wants movies that appeal to the masses, all over the world. This has led to criticism that the quality of TV on Netflix has slipped. Netflix would say its viewers seem pretty happy with the diversity of programs.
When Netflix is humming, it releases a new TV show every week that lots of people want to see. That can be reality (“Selling Sunset”), animation (“Arcane”), adult drama (“Maid”) or soap (“You”). The majority of Netflix’s most popular TV shows are its big original series, and these shows are popular in large territories all over the world.
The most-watched Netflix movies of all time aren’t its Oscar bait. They are its action movies with big stars. “Red Notice.” “Extraction.” “The Old Guard.”
The company will still release projects like Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” and “The Kissing Booth.” But it wants to release at least a dozen movies a year that look like something you’d see on the big screen.
(If Stuber gets his way, you just might. The company has been in recurring conversations with major theater chains about how it could release more of its movies in theaters.)
So while “Red Notice” won’t be on many critics’ year-end lists, it’s one of the most important movies of the year. The viewers have spoken. — Lucas Shaw
The best of Screentime (and other stuff)
‘Spider-Man: No Way From Home’ Will Be the Year’s Biggest Debut
“Spider-Man: No Way From Home” is going to be the first movie of the pandemic to gross more than $100 million during its first weekend in North America.
The studio is lowballing (as usual) and projecting in the $120 million to $140 million rage. Most analysts put it north of $150 million. Some are even saying it could gross more than $200 million. AMC, the biggest movie theater chain, said the film has generated the second-busiest ticket sales day ever, trailing “Avengers: Endgame.”
“It will likely be the biggest domestic opening weekend in 2 years,” Gitesh Pandya, the editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com, told my colleague Brian Eckhouse.
Whatever the number, “Spider-Man” is going to top “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” which grossed $91 million in North America. Barring a record-breaking performance, it won’t gross enough in 2021 to be the year’s biggest movie. It’s not opening until Dec. 17. But it should be the highest-grossing movie released in 2021 by the time all is said and done. — Brian Eckhouse
The secrets of a movie business tell-all
Kevin Goetz earns a nice living running focus groups for movie studios looking to test new films before releasing them. He’s starting to get worried about the future of cinemas.
The theatrical business may never get back to its pre-pandemic glory, he says. Young people don’t have the same emotional connection with cinemas that their parents did. Older folks are getting used to seeing dramas and romantic comedies online. And there’s just so much good TV to watch at home. What’s left for theaters is big spectacles, action films, superhero movies.
“Most things don’t belong in a movie theater,” Goetz said in an interview. “To get that rarefied space, that requires a major call to action. Leaving your home, paying for that movie.”
Goetz, the chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Screen Engine/ASI LLC, has written a book, published Nov. 30 by Simon & Schuster. “Audience-ology” tells the story of his career in movie research. It’s a niche business that dates to the earliest days of film, when silent stars like Charlie Chaplin and Harold Lloyd screened cuts before random theater audiences in Los Angeles. In the 1930s pollster George Gallup brought comment cards and more sophisticated research tools. The business is still very similar today.
The Bloomberg 50
Bloomberg just published its list of the 50 people who changed business in the past year. The list includes a capital police officer and the chair of the Federal Trade Commission, but it also includes several figures familiar to readers of this newsletter:
Disney+ bows to Chinese censors
Customers of Disney+ in Hong Kong will find an episode of “The Simpsons” is missing: episode 12 of season 16, in which the Simpsons visit Tiananmen Square.
“This is the first notable time an American streaming giant has censored content in Hong Kong,” Kenny Ng, an associate professor specializing in film censorship at Hong Kong Baptist University, told Kari Soo Lindberg.
Hollywood studios have long had to censors films to get them released in China. Most major streaming services don’t operate on the mainland because they can’t get approved.
Deals, deals, deals: The BuzzFeed SPAC limps to the finish line
BuzzFeed will go public on Monday in a merger with a special acquisitions company called 890 5th Avenue Partners Inc. The digital media company is only raising about $16 million after most of the investors in the SPAC pulled out.
This is fairly common in SPAC-land these days. Investors got wise to the fact that many of the companies going public via SPAC aren’t doing so from a position of strength. (You can test your knowledge on all things SPAC with this Buzzfeed-style quiz.)
BuzzFeed says it will all be fine. It raised $150 million in convertible debt that can help it complete the acquisition of Complex, and can use its stock to buy things in the future. This is supposed to initiate a wave of consolidation in digital media, where companies have struggled to build up enough scale to compete for ad dollars with tech giants and subscriptions with legacy players.
But going public is supposed to be a great liquidity event where investors and employees cash in. This is…. Not that?
- 100 Thieves is now worth $460 million, making it one of the most valuable esports companies in the world.
- VIacomCBS sold its 55-acre studio in the San Fernando Valley to a couple of real estate developers. The media giant has now sold two of its biggest real estate holdings to raise money for funding production. (Or to slim itself down for a sale…?)
- Dark Horse Comics, which published “Umbrella Academy” and “Sin City,” has hired a financial advisor to weigh its options – joining the cavalcade of content companies testing the market.
- The record label 300 Entertainment is close to selling itself to Warner Music Group.
Weekly playlist
Sharing my Spotify Wrapped here. My top artist of the year was Arlo Parks, followed by Joy Oladokun, Olivia Rodrigo, Madlib and DMX. My top genre was neosoul. And my “aura” was wistful and happy.
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